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NASA: 2009 tied for 2nd-warmest year, 00s hottest decade too

By John Timmer | Last updated January 22, 2010 11:29 AM

As the past year's temperature data came in, it became increasingly clear that 2009 was going to be a very hot one unless something unexpected happened in the latter months of the year. Something unusual did in fact happen, but it only ended up shifting warm and cold air around. As a result, when NASA completed its analysis of 2009's surface temperatures, the year ended up in a statistical tie with a handful of others asthe second warmest on record.

According to NASA's methods, the warmest year on record was 2005, and 2009 shares the second-warmest title with 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2007. No surprise, then, that the past decade was also the warmest record, a finding that's far more indicative of climate change than any given year's results.

The decade's warmth may also explain why many people didn't view 2009 as unusually hot—in essence, record temperatures are the new normal. Another factor is that the high global mean temperature was driven by the Southern Hemisphere, where it was the warmest year ever seen in NASA's records. For those with a US-centric view of global temperatures, NASA helpfully points out that the contiguous 48 states only account for about 1.5 percent of the world's surface.

Relevant to this morning's discussion of reproducibility, NASA also describes how to repeat its analysis. The people responsible for the work have also provided a helpful explanation of why NASA has decided 2005 is the hottest year on record, but a slightly different approach favors 1998 as the record holder.

While on the topic of climate, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the fact that the IPCC messed up when it picked a target year for when melting of Himalayan glaciers reaches critical levels. For some reason, its numbers came from something other than the peer-reviewed literature, and were overly pessimistic. Those glaciers are melting, but there's a lot of ice there, and it's almost impossible for it to melt that quickly

Comments

[Brandon]

I think global warming is a huge crisis that not only the US has to deal with but the whole world. We have to do something or eventually in the next few centuries this planet will be too hot to sustain life. I do not like the heat as it is now, I don't know if I can take it gettting hotter. I'm not surprised that 2009 was the 2nd hottest year. It seems to be getting hotter every year to me. Even in the winter it doesn't seem to be as cold anymore. I think it's bad that we as people do not realize the high temperatures because the high temperatures are becoming the norm.

[JohnEvans]

This graph doesn't really convince me, because I have found mean graphs sowing global warming to be leveling out. There are several so i wont post urls but if you google "average global temperature 100 years" there are plenty of images to be found. There is a definite upward trend in them all but it doesn't seam as drastic as some activist would like you to believe. The most powerful image i saw is one on the website of a former nasa scientist showing the variation in temperature over the last 2000 years. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/07/ I do not know enough about this man to know what is biases is but these numbers are eye opening.

[Scarecrowe]

John —

Bebefore citing an authority, don’t you think you should do some basic research regarding his credentials and credibility?

[JohnEvans]

well he worked for nasa, where he got an award for expectational research, has a PHD from a large university, work as a research director for another large credible university. His research has been supported by NASA. NOAA, and DOE. His work has been published in large academic journals. The evidence he presents was gathered by the National Academy of Sciences, an institution that one many academic awards of its own.

[cdavis17]

I think that I have changed my view on how important global warming is. I think that it is a huge issue that we will have to face in our lifetimes, and you can already see the effects that are going on. We really need to do something to stop/control the rate of global warming. I know that I probably need to start walking more places, or riding a bike to places that aren't that far away. It will be a lifestyle change, but I would do it if I knew that I could have kids and they could grow up not worrying if the ocean is going to overtake the US.

[Scarecrowe]

John —

You point out that he worked for NASA. So you’re citing NASA as an trustworthy authority. I agree. The report above — the one you’re reflecting — is from NASA, so apparently the organization he worked for and which you cite as credible disagrees with him. So which has more credibility: one scientist who used to work for NASA or all the scientists who still do?

You say that the evidence he presents was gathered by the NAS. If that’s true, then the NAS strongly disagrees with his interpretation of that data since it sees global warming as a potentially catastrophic problem for which drastic measures are needed.

Would you classify NASA and the NAS as “activists?” What exactly do you mean by “activists” anyway?

What you DIDN‘T say was that 90-95% of climatologists disagree with Spencer.

What you DIDN‘T say was that Spencer rejects the theory of evolution for ID — a position which at least 99% of all scientists disagree with.

What you DIDN‘T say was that was that Spencer is a member of organizations who actively deny global warming because they represent corporate interests that oppose the regulation of their industries that serious measures to curtail global warming would require. He has a vested interest, not a scientific one, in denying global warming. The organizations in question are the Heartland Institute and the George C. Marshall Institute.

I would have to conclude that Spencer is not a credible authority.

[Scarecrowe]

Oh John —

And the publisher of his book about global warming also has a political agenda. Encounter Books only publishes books with an appropriate right wing political viewpoint — the science doesn’t matter unless it supports the politics. Vested interest. Compromised credibility.

[mgn]

After last year no one in their right mind can honestly say that Global Warming is not occurring. I mean in winter there are people outside walking around in shorts because the temperature does not call for warm apparel. Just last summer we experienced our second warmest it has ever been. Things like this just can’t be ignored like it has been. We know what we must do to contribute our part to putting a squeeze on the scorching effects of our planet warming; now all we need to do is apply the pressure. What I don’t understand about Global Warming is if by committing our lives to dutifully fulfilling our obligations to “go green” if it will reverse some of the damage already done to our planet?

[quicktype89]

Global warming is an issue that I have advocated most of my life. It drives me insane when people refuse to recognize that it is getting warmer and that major and fast changes are happening all across our globe. We can see physical evidence, and typically that is all people need, but no not when it may harm their future in money making business. The only thing holding the world back from the "green initiative" is greed and power. People are not willing to conserve and give up and give back because of fear they may loose something they have. What they can't see is what we will gain from conservation, which is a beautiful life more connected with creation.

mgn-
As for the reversal of Global Warming, no we can't reverse it, but the purpose to go green is to stop the human influence on climate change to ultimately stop/slow Global warming to a natural pace. But that is not the only obligation we have. As Christians we have an obligation to save and protect our planet, a gift from God, because we are called to protect the weak and innocent and that includes our future children and brothers and sisters in Christ. They have no control over their past and we do so it is our responsibility to care for that.

[Morgan]

I have definitly changed my opinion about the seriousness of global warming. The facts are here. It is not just a coincidence that this past decade has been one of the warmest on record nor that 2009 was the second warmest year. Global warming is extremely important and we have to start taking precautions now. I agree with the video that the change is not going to happen overnight. It is going to have to be a gradual change with everyone in the world contributing. The graph above does not lie. The statistics are for this past century. A hundred years is plenty enough data to believe the statistics.

[kmcnutt]

As I learn more about these issues, my action side keeps kicking in. I think to myself, "what can I do to show where I stand on this?" I think a huge positive for Global Warming is that most of our generation gets it. We understand that this is a problem, a fact, not something someone made up, but something that we can help. A negative about this generation is that we also grew up with a hunger for greed. We have had so many 'things' at our fingertips. We are just now running into financial problems. It's going to be rather difficult for the world to cut down on their activity that promotes global warming.
I look at the 70-90 year old population and think about how much they can go without. Most don't use much because they grew up in 'hard times'. If we can understand that we don't need everything we think we do, things could get better.
One of my favorite quotes relates a ton to the issue of Global Warming, "The more you know, the less you need." For us and our younger siblings and kids, this could be our life motto :)

[Sarah Thullbery]

Most of what I thought was the credible basis of my understanding of climate change came from the IPCC's report. I'm really surprised to discover that the numbers did not come from peer reviewed literature because in the introduction for the policy maker's guide to the report it specifically referred to the credibility of scientists worldwide. Despite this and based on other documentaries I've seen, I still think that this is a huge issue that we must deal with.
As for those who will not accept climate change despite the numbers and facts, I think that everyone can agree that taking care of the planet is important. We can clearly see the adverse effects that we've had on the planet. I think that, as students, we need to focus on what we can do better, whether is is being sure to turn the lights out when we leave the room, recycling, and walking to class instead of driving. While we can and should write letters to our representatives in the government, I think that it is more important to focus on what we can do as individuals because of how politically charged this issue is and how easily we can change our habits.

[Julie Jackson]

Last year in my science class we studied global warming. Then, I did not think it was that big of a deal and did not really think that it was that serious. Now, I see that it has a big impact on our lives. The thing that makes me mad about it is that a lot of it is cause by us. Due to factories and pollution. I think if we do not take a stand and try to stop global warming it will be a lot worse in the future. It is obvious that global warming is a big problem. There is a lot of proof and pictures to prove it. Animals are losing their homes and Antartica is melting. Also, the supply of water up north where a lot of farmers get there water from snow pack is melting. That means that it can only get worse and we need to make some changes.

[Larz]

I never really thought to much about global warming until this class. I am glad that we are talking about it though because it is a huge issue that everyone should know more about. I feel that everyone in the world needs to be doing something to contribute in the precautions. It can't just be a few people here and there, or just a few countries, everyone on the planet needs to help that is the only way we can really help prevent global warming. I personally did not realize that it has been getting hotter in the summer time it feels the same to me; however, the winter I really have noticed isn't as cold as it use to be. I just have a bad feeling things to help prevent this aren't going to happen until it is to late. People need to stop ignoring the facts and we need to do something.

[Tyler]

I feel sorry for the next generation. My generation will experience the repercussions, but the next few generations will bear the brunt.

It really angers me that this issue has turned into a political view. NO other science is considered to be a political view. Just think about it, why in the world are people in debate over a view of science? On top of that, why in the world is it considered a crucial point in someone's political views? That is why our country is falling behind the rest of the world.